Scenario methodology, the one that I use in my book Stop Nobody Move, is actually a pretty old “discipline”. Even taking us back to the 1970s and Shell. But it seem to have been a bit forgotten today. Is it then reasonable to expect a revival?
Well, if looking on business history, the idea of scenarios have been of interest mainly when there has been turbulent times, so why not?
From a business point of view one might claim that it all started with the oil crises during the 1970s, and the company Shell ending up far better than the other oil companies – just because they used (even developed) scenario methodology (have a look in the literature-list in the book and you find interesting reference to that, helping you to get to know more).
Having that said it probably is no coincidence I in this book end up in scenario methodology. We tend to live in turbulent times now again.
So yes, I would not be surprised if scenario methodology gets some kind of revival soon.
But as long as the idea about “the only thing we know about future is that we can not know future” is around, I don´t think it will. One has to believe it even being possible to say something about future in order to be interested in trying to do it.
Stop Nobody Move 